DUSHANBE, Tajikistan, December 6. The Tajik somoni has strengthened against the US dollar in 2024, Trend reports via the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).
The average exchange rate improved from 10.96 somoni per dollar in December 2023 to 10.6 somoni per dollar in October 2024.
The EDB notes that an improvement in the country's balance of payments is largely responsible for this appreciation. In the first half of 2024, Tajikistan recorded a current account surplus of $0.3 billion (6.2 percent of GDP), reversing a deficit of $0.2 billion (4.6 percent of GDP) in the same period of 2023. A significant factor behind this shift was a surge in remittances arriving in the country.
The EDB forecasts that the somoni will continue to strengthen in 2024, with the exchange rate expected to average 10.8 somoni per dollar. However, the medium-term projections indicate a further weakening of the national currency against the dollar, with an average rate of 11 somoni per dollar in 2025, 11.5 in 2026, and 12.1 somoni per dollar by 2027.
The bank attributes this forecast to a rising demand for foreign currency due to increased imports driven by growing consumption and investments.
At the same time, the somoni's depreciation will be influenced by a slowdown in exports, stemming from a reduced potential for developing new industries focused on foreign markets, as well as a decline in remittance flows.