BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 11. The US and Iran are expected to dominate the global oil supply gains in 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts, Trend reports.
As such, Iran, which is not subject to OPEC+ supply cuts, is on track to be the second-largest contributor with anticipated gains of 410 kb/d in 2024.
In contrast, Saudi Arabia and Russia, the largest producers within the OPEC+ alliance, are projected to post the biggest annual declines this year.
Meanwhile, the US, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil are expected to contribute a combined 1.2 mb/d to non-OPEC+ supply growth in 2024 and another 1.1 mb/d in 2025, according to the IEA forecast. The US is projected to dominate these gains, accounting for 50 percent of the non-OPEC+ expansion this year and 40 percent in 2025. However, US growth is set to decelerate from 740 kb/d in 2024 to 570 kb/d in 2025.
At the same time, the IEA expects demand growth to outpace higher non-OPEC+ output in the third quarter of 2024, raising the call on OPEC+ crude by 540 kb/d from the second quarter to 42.2 mb/d. The group pumped around 41.4 mb/d of crude oil in June. However, the call is expected to decline to 41.8 mb/d in the fourth quarter.
For 2025, the agency forecasts the call on OPEC+ crude to drop further to 41.1 mb/d as non-OPEC+ output continues to expand.