BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 15. U.S. coal production is forecast to continue its downward trend over the next two years, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Trend reports.
In 2024, production is estimated to have fallen by 12%, totaling 512 million short tons (MMst), compared to 578 MMst in 2023. The decline is expected to slow in 2025, with production forecast to reach 476 MMst as utilities increasingly rely on existing coal inventories to meet demand.
The EIA anticipates coal inventories held by power plants will decrease to 103 MMst in 2025, leading to a slight rebound in production to 477 MMst in 2026. Despite this, coal consumption in the electric power sector is expected to remain flat at nearly 370 MMst for both 2025 and 2026. Higher natural gas prices are expected to support coal usage, even as retirements reduce coal-fired capacity in these years.
The forecast also predicts a slight drop in U.S. coal exports, from 107 MMst in 2024 to 104 MMst in 2025, with a small further decrease to 103 MMst in 2026. Exports will be split nearly evenly between metallurgical and thermal coal, with India remaining a significant destination for both types. However, challenges such as a strong U.S. dollar and global pricing dynamics, including increased thermal coal exports from other countries, could affect the outlook for U.S. coal exports.
