BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan.18
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
European jet fuel demand is expected to rise from 0.8 million barrels per day in 2021 to 1.2 mbd in 2022, and 1.4 mbd in 2023, Trend reports with reference to the US JP Morgan Bank.
The table below shows Europe’s demand for other oil products in 2022 and 2023 as compared to 2021 (in mbd):
|
Product |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
|
LPG |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
|
Naphtha |
1 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
|
Gasoline |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
Jet and kerosene |
0.8 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
|
Diesel/Gasoil |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
|
Fuel Oil |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
|
Other Products |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
The world demand for oil products will be as follows:
|
Product |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
|
LPG |
9.9 |
10.1 |
10.4 |
|
Naphtha |
6.6 |
6.6 |
6.7 |
|
Gasoline |
24.8 |
25.8 |
26.2 |
|
Jet and kerosene |
5.3 |
6.7 |
7.5 |
|
Diesel/Gasoil |
27.3 |
27.7 |
27.8 |
|
Fuel Oil |
6.3 |
6.4 |
6.3 |
|
Other Products |
16.1 |
16.4 |
16.4 |
The Bank notes that global oil supply is forecast to grow by 5.5 mbd in 2022, an upward revision of 290 kbd, most of it reversing a 1Q22 OPEC+ pause embedded in our previous balance, offset by outages in Ecuador, Libya and Kazakhstan.
“Slightly weaker demand and a bit higher supply have pushed our 2022 liquids balance to a small surplus (400 kbd). Crucially—after a 1.6 mbd deficit in 2021—the size of the surplus is not sufficient to normalize crude inventories, which are likely to remain well below both five-year averages and the five-year range, necessitating higher prices (our mid-year price target remains at $90/bbl),” reads the report.
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