BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 19. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported a modest increase of 1.8% in global thermal coal trade for 2024, driven largely by surging demand in Asia, Trend reports.
While mature economies such as Japan, South Korea, and the EU saw reductions in imports due to declining coal-fired power generation, countries like China, India, and Vietnam drove growth, highlighting Asia’s dominant role in the market.
Chinese thermal coal imports rose 10% to an estimated 408 million tons (Mt), reflecting increased power generation needs, slower domestic supply growth, and ongoing energy security measures. India also maintained strong import volumes, aided by government policies requiring power plants to blend imported coal with domestic sources. Meanwhile, Vietnam saw an 18% spike in imports, fueled by low hydropower output and rising electricity demand, positioning it as the world’s fifth-largest thermal coal importer.
Looking forward, Vietnam plans to enhance coal imports from Lao PDR, targeting a tenfold increase to 20 Mt annually. This will be supported by a 6-kilometer conveyor belt project linking the two countries, aimed at replacing inefficient road transport. Other Asian nations, including the Philippines and Chinese Taipei, also recorded moderate increases in imports.
Despite the 2024 growth, the IEA forecasts a sharp decline in global thermal coal imports through 2027, with volumes expected to shrink by 153 Mt. The reduction will largely stem from China and India, as both nations ramp up domestic production and scale back reliance on imports. Western countries are also expected to continue phasing out coal imports in line with decarbonization goals.
However, thermal coal demand is projected to rise in a few countries, such as the Philippines, Vietnam, and Bangladesh, with growth potentially reaching up to 16 Mt by 2027. Bangladesh is likely to source a portion of its coal from India under a recently announced logistics plan by India’s Coal Ministry.
