BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 15. Global oil supply growth is set to be stronger than previously expected, according to the latest outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
The agency has revised its forecast up by 370,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 2.5 million b/d in 2025, and by 620,000 b/d to 1.9 million b/d in 2026.
The adjustment follows the 3 August decision by eight OPEC+ members to raise production by 547,000 b/d in September, completing the unwinding of the 2.2 million b/d in cuts agreed in November 2023. OPEC+ crude and natural gas liquids are now expected to contribute 1.1 million b/d of supply growth this year and 890,000 b/d in 2026.
Despite these gains, non-OPEC+ producers remain the main driver of growth, led by higher output from US natural gas liquids, Canadian crude, and offshore production in the US, Brazil and Guyana.
On the demand side, the IEA has trimmed its outlook for 2025, with growth now projected at around 700,000 b/d — the same as in 2024. Weak consumption across major economies, subdued consumer confidence, and softer-than-expected demand in emerging markets such as China, Brazil, Egypt, and India have weighed on the forecast.
Aviation remains a bright spot, with robust summer travel pushing jet fuel demand to record highs in the US and Europe. Global jet and kerosene consumption is expected to rise by 2.1% this year, the fastest growth among oil products, though still 180,000 b/d below pre-pandemic levels.
