BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb.19
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The pandemic led to oil demand contracting by 9-10 million barrels per day in 2020, but it is expected to rebound by 5-6 million barrels per day this year. Trend reports with reference to the joint findings of the the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Energy Forum (IEF) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The pandemic has also led to a downward revision in long-term annual economic growth by as much as 0.8 percentage points in some outlooks, the report noted.
Fossil fuels are expected to dominate the primary energy mix thru 2040, even in scenarios where countries meet the Paris Agreement’s climate goals. The gap between current pathway scenarios and alternative scenarios is large and growing annually, signalling that the zero-carbon emissions scenario may not be achieved.
Demand for oil is expected to be stable over the long term globally, although demand will likely shift from developed to developing countries. Differing outlooks on the expected importance of hydrocarbons suggest that new technologies such as carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) could have a bigger role to play.
Nuclear, hydro, wind and solar will account for a majority of growth in the electricity sector, while coal is expected to decline and natural gas faces an uncertain future as a transition fuel. Growing climate ambitions in the lead up to COP26 will have significant implications for the energy sector, which accounts for three-quarters of global emissions.
“The pandemic’s impact on energy demand is unparalleled in the history of energy markets,” says IEF Secretary General Joseph McMonigle. “The symposium explored what government policies and industry responses are necessary to safeguard the long-term stability of energy markets.”
Dr Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the IEA, said: “Dialogue and cooperation will be increasingly vital to steer the global energy system towards a future that is fit for tomorrow’s generations, where energy is abundant, affordable, clean and is used to underpin growth and development.”
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