BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 6. Europe will produce 12 percent more gas between now and 2030, reflecting the industry’s reaction to higher oil and gas prices in the short term and responses to the pledge from EU to deliver more gas, Trend reports with reference to DNV GL.
“Russia produces about 17 percent of global natural gas and import from Russia met 33 percent of Europe’s overall natural gas consumption in 2020. When we let our model choke Russian gas supply to Europe by 80 percent in 2023 and 100 percent in 2025, and factor in the higher gas prices that result, we see a spillover to other areas, like electricity prices.
For example, for 2024, the electricity price is 12 percent higher than a model run with no change in Russian energy import. Globally, the war [in Ukraine] leads to 3 percent lower energy demand within two years, compared with our pre-war model run, mainly because of lower GDP,” reads the latest report released by DNV GL.
The company notes that high oil and gas prices will stimulate new developments globally, but in the wake of this initial rush to new production, over the next decade global demand will likely reduce rather than increase, as GDP growth and globalization reduce, and both oil and gas production and transport hence inch a little lower.
“Thus, we anticipate that over-investments will result in lower oil and gas prices in the second half of this decade and our model suggests that this will lead to a small increase in global oil use later in the 2030s relative to our pre-war forecast,” said the company.
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