BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 30. The World Bank’s latest outlook suggests that global coal consumption will likely peak this year, marking a turning point in the energy transition, Trend reports.
Despite a projected 21% decline in Australian coal prices by the end of 2024, coal demand has surged this year, led by significant increases in India and a moderate uptick in China, which have together offset declining demand in Europe. However, a downward shift is on the horizon: coal demand in China is expected to decrease in 2025, with India’s growth also slowing.
By 2026, coal consumption is forecast to decline more steeply, particularly across China, Europe, and the United States, as renewable energy and natural gas continue to capture larger shares of the power generation mix at the expense of coal. If these projections hold, 2024 could mark a historic high point for global coal use.
Production forecasts align with this demand shift, with decreases expected in major producing countries like China, the United States, and Indonesia, which is reducing output per governmental targets. Among leading producers, only India is likely to see production growth over the next two years to meet robust domestic demand.
Risks to the forecast include potential upswings in China’s coal consumption beyond 2024, alongside any electricity shortfalls from other energy sources, which could drive prices higher. Conversely, a supply surplus or weaker-than-expected global economic growth could place downward pressure on coal prices.
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