BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 5. The forecast of the National Bank of Kazakhstan in relation to the growth of the economy in Kazakhstan in 2022 has been revised, Trend reports via National Bank of Kazakhstan.
According to the results of the current year, against the background of expected planned repairs at large deposits and the continuing uncertainty at the CPC Caspian Consortium Pipeline, the dynamics of GDP will slow down to 2.5-3.5 percent. A positive contribution from all demand components is expected. A significant contribution will be made by real exports against the background of the current high base of the first quarter and the recovery of growth rates by the end of the year after some reduction in the second and third quarters of 2022.
Mid-term evaluations show strong export growth amid oil production growth in 2023-2024. An additional incentive will be the growing dynamics of consumer demand in the context of rising government spending. At the same time, the high dynamics of imports, which will be a consequence of fiscal stimulus, partially neutralizes the growth of domestic demand. GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 4-5 percent in 2023. And GDP growth will be at the same levels in 2024.
Taking into account the current premises, inflation is forecasted to be in the range of 16-18 percent by the end of 2022. This is higher than the previous estimates of Kazakhstan's National Bank. The main contribution to the price increase will continue to be made by food products, taking into account the dynamics of prices in foreign and domestic food markets. Significant inflationary pressure will be observed against the background of positive fiscal momentum, high external inflation, weakening of Kazakhstan's tenge and restructuring of logistics and production chains. An additional factor is high, but not anchored inflation expectations.
Inflation will gradually slow down to 7.5-9.5 percent in 2023. A decrease in the food price index for cereals, a high base of inflation in 2022, and a faster than previously expected slowdown in inflation in Russia will have a restraining effect on inflation. In the absence of new external and internal shocks, inflation will be in the range of 5.5-7.5 percent in 2024
