ASTANA, Kazakhstan, October 6. ING Group forecasts that Kazakhstan’s consolidated budget balance will shift from a surplus of 0.0 percent of GDP in 2024 to a deficit of -2.5 percent of GDP by the end of 2025, Trend reports.
A key concern is the sharp rise in the breakeven price of Brent crude oil, which is expected to reach $119 per barrel in 2025, the level required to balance the budget. ING stresses the urgent need for credible fiscal consolidation, as the high breakeven price makes public finances extremely vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices.
According to ING, the country’s current account deficit is expected to widen from -2.7 percent of GDP in 2024 to -3.3 percent in 2025, driven by accelerated capital outflows and summer market volatility.
The tenge is forecast to trade at 535 KZT/USD by the end of 2025, continuing a devaluation trend from 524 KZT/USD in 2024. The report notes that the NBK has been forced to increase foreign exchange interventions in the fourth quarter of 2025 to support the tenge.
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