BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 15. The European Union’s decision to stop importing Russian natural gas will create additional opportunities in the European market for non-Russian suppliers, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, where Russian pipeline gas continues to account for a significant share of supplies.
This is stated in information published on the website of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Meanwhile, it is noted that, according to EU legislation adopted in December 2025, imports of Russian LNG under short-term contracts will be prohibited starting at the end of April 2026, and imports of Russian pipeline gas will be prohibited starting in mid-June: “EU countries must completely halt imports of Russian LNG by January 1, 2027, and the remaining supplies of Russian pipeline gas no later than November 1, 2027.”
According to the agency, the implementation of these measures is expected to result in a reduction in Russian pipeline gas and LNG supplies to the EU by approximately 33 billion cubic meters per year between 2025 and 2028.
The IEA estimates that part of the reduction in supplies could be offset by lower demand for gas resulting from improved energy efficiency and further electrification: “At the same time, the space freed up in the market could be filled by non-Russian suppliers.”
“Since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022, Europe’s gas market has changed significantly. The share of Russian natural gas in EU demand has fallen from nearly 40% in 2021 to about 10% in 2025.
Against this backdrop, the share of LNG in EU demand rose from less than 20% to nearly 45%.
Between 2021 and 2025, imports of Russian pipeline gas fell by nearly 90%, or 120 billion cubic meters.
However, the diversification process has been uneven. Northwestern Europe and Italy have effectively stopped importing Russian pipeline gas, while a number of countries in Central and Eastern Europe continue to depend on Russian supplies.
“At the same time, imports of Russian LNG into the EU increased by more than 40%, or 6 billion cubic meters, between 2021 and 2025. The bulk of this growth occurred in Northwestern and Southwestern Europe,” the IEA reports.
Furthermore, it is emphasized that from 2021 through 2023, annual gas demand in Central and Eastern Europe fell by more than 20% amid record-high prices, which led to a decline in industrial gas consumption: “In 2023–2025, demand partially recovered, increasing by approximately 10%.
“Unlike in Western Europe, natural gas demand in Central and Eastern Europe is expected to continue growing in the medium term as the region further phases out coal-fired power generation.
Historically, the region has been heavily dependent on Russian pipeline gas. In 2021, it accounted for about 60% of primary gas supplies to the region.
“Although imports of Russian pipeline gas have declined from 55 billion cubic meters in 2021 to just over 15 billion cubic meters in 2025, they still cover about 20% of the region’s gas demand,” the agency reports.
In addition, it is noted that further diversification in Central and Eastern Europe is taking place against the backdrop of a significant expansion in global LNG production capacity.
The IEA emphasizes that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid the war in the Middle East have led to a significant reduction in gas supplies to the global market: “From March through July 2026, LNG exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates fell by 43 billion cubic meters on an annualized basis.”
“However, the impact of this decline on the global market was partially offset by growth in LNG production in other regions.
From March through July, LNG production outside the Persian Gulf increased by nearly 16%, or more than 30 billion cubic meters on a year-over-year basis. This offset about 70% of the decline in LNG supplies from Persian Gulf countries.
This growth was driven primarily by increased production from new LNG projects in North America and Africa, as well as by greater availability of gas for LNG production among existing producers in Africa and Asia.
According to current project plans, more than 350 billion cubic meters of new annual LNG export capacity is expected to come online worldwide by the early 2030s. The United States and Qatar are expected to account for more than 70% of this increase.
“An increase in LNG supply will ease market tensions and exert downward pressure on gas prices in the medium term,” the IEA reports.
According to the agency, further adaptation of gas infrastructure will be required to replace the remaining supplies of Russian pipeline gas to Central and Eastern Europe.
"This primarily involves the ability to transport large volumes of non-Russian LNG from import terminals to the region’s domestic markets. However, the growth in LNG import capacity has slowed in recent years due to constraints in transporting regasified gas from coastal terminals to demand centers located within the region, as well as limited interregional pipeline connections.
Since late 2021, LNG import capacity in Central and Eastern Europe has increased by approximately 15 billion cubic meters per year, reaching nearly 35 billion cubic meters by the end of 2025. This corresponds to more than 40% of the region’s natural gas demand.
In particular, the capacity of the Świnoujście LNG terminal in Poland was expanded, and in January 2023, the Inkoo LNG regasification terminal, serving the gas markets of Estonia and Finland, began operations.
In Southeast Europe, the Alexandroupolis LNG terminal in Greece began operations in October 2024. Its capacity is 6 billion cubic meters per year.
The Croatian Krk LNG terminal was also expanded and reached a capacity of 3.4 billion cubic meters per year in November 2025.
“Central and Eastern Europe can also utilize expanded regasification capacity in Germany and Italy through existing regional gas interconnections,” the IEA reports.
According to the IEA, cross-border gas pipeline connections between countries in Central and Eastern Europe have also improved significantly since 2022: “This has enabled an increase in regional gas flows and indirect LNG supplies to landlocked countries.”
Among such projects, the agency highlights the gas interconnector between Poland and Slovakia, the Greece-Bulgaria interconnector, and the modernization of the Hungary-Slovakia and Hungary-Romania interconnectors.
According to the agency, it is also necessary to expand the existing capacity of gas pipelines that transport gas from south to north: “This will allow for more efficient distribution of regasified LNG throughout the region.”
"Gas transmission system operators are working on the Vertical Gas Corridor project. It is intended to increase gas transmission capacity from south to north via the former Trans-Balkan Gas Pipeline system, which will enable the delivery of regasified LNG from Greece to Moldova and Ukraine.
According to the IEA, this pipeline system could provide approximately 10 billion cubic meters of annual capacity and help ensure gas supplies to Ukraine.
The IEA notes that infrastructure alone will not be sufficient to strengthen the region’s gas supply security: “As the shift away from Russian pipeline gas progresses, more flexible procurement strategies will also be needed, including contract diversification and additional purchases on the global spot gas market.”
Moreover, it is emphasized that, starting in 2022, European buyers have signed contracts to import more than 45 billion cubic meters of LNG per year: “Buyers from Central and Eastern Europe accounted for less than one-fifth of these volumes. At the same time, based on existing contracts, buyers from Central and Eastern Europe have secured approximately 5 billion cubic meters of LNG per year through 2028. This corresponds to about 5% of the region’s current gas demand.”
It is noted that if new contracts are not concluded, the region’s dependence on the global spot market, which is becoming more liquid but is also subject to volatility, will increase significantly.
The IEA notes that a diversified supply portfolio, including long-term LNG contracts, can enhance the security of gas supplies and provide greater certainty regarding future deliveries.
“Contracts with the option to change the destination can also provide European buyers with additional commercial opportunities without creating a long-term commitment to specific supplies,” the agency reports.
According to the IEA, this will be crucial for ensuring relative price stability and security of supply as Central and Eastern Europe phase out Russian pipeline gas after more than five decades of dependence.
