BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 15. Azerbaijan recorded a current account surplus of $4.7 billion in its balance of payments, and the country's external financial position continued to strengthen in the first half of 2026. According to external sector statistics released today by the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA), alongside the current account surplus, the country's strategic foreign currency reserves rose to $85.8 billion, and Azerbaijan directed $5 billion in direct investments abroad. These indicators demonstrate the expansion of the country's external financial capabilities and the strengthening of its international economic position.
According to the latest figures released by the regulatory body, the current account surplus has more than doubled compared to the $2.3 billion recorded in the first half of 2025, reaching 12.4 % of GDP.
Director of the Statistics Department at the CBA, Samir Nasirov, said during a press conference today that the current account outcome is a key indicator of Azerbaijan's macroeconomic stability.
"In the first half of this year, the current account surplus stood at $4.7 billion. This figure represents 12.4 % of GDP and marks an approximately twofold increase compared to the same period last year," Nasirov said.
High revenues generated in the energy sector are a primary driver of the surplus. The oil and gas current account surplus rose by 23.6 % to reach $9 billion, while a deficit of $4.3 billion was recorded in the non-oil and gas sector.
At the same time, positive trends in non-oil and gas exports, transport services, foreign investments, and international financial assets are also notable aspects of Azerbaijan's external economic position. Increased activity in each of these areas creates additional opportunities for expanding the country's sources of foreign revenue and diversifying economic ties.
High oil prices strengthen external position
In the first half of 2026, the average realized price of Azerbaijani oil stood at $94.5 per barrel. This represents a 33 % increase compared to the same period in 2025.
The rise in energy prices has directly translated into higher export revenues. Total commodity exports grew by 16.9 %, reaching $14.3 billion. Oil and gas exports amounted to $12.3 billion, while non-oil and gas exports totaled $2 billion. With imports remaining at $8.1 billion, a foreign trade surplus of $6.2 billion was recorded.
The increase in the current account surplus driven by the oil and gas sector is the result of additional foreign currency inflows generated by high prices. At the same time, higher energy prices also lead to increased profit repatriation by foreign investors from projects in Azerbaijan. In the first half of the year, profit repatriation by foreign investors amounted to approximately $2 billion, with oil and gas consortia accounting for $1.8 billion of this total. Thus, the impact of high oil prices on the balance of payments is not limited solely to the growth of export revenues. The rise in energy revenues creates a reciprocal mechanism that increases both the current account surplus and the volume of earnings repatriated by foreign investors.
Azerbaijan expands its position as capital exporter
In the first half of 2026, the total volume of direct investments directed abroad from Azerbaijan amounted to $5 billion. Of this, $4.2 billion originated from the oil and gas sector. The net deficit in foreign direct investments stood at $4.3 billion.
"The oil and gas sector accounted for $4.2 billion of the direct investments made abroad," Nasirov explained.
A major deal in the Italian energy market was the primary component of capital outflow. In May, approximately 3 billion euro—or $3.2–3.3 billion —was allocated for the acquisition of a 99.85% stake in Italiana Petroli.
"The acquisition of this stake was valued at approximately 3 billion euro, or $3.2–3.3 billion," the CBA official added.
This transaction is notable for the conversion of capital generated within Azerbaijan's energy sector into foreign assets. Furthermore, the fact that the investment was directed toward Italy's energy and fuel distribution sector demonstrates that Azerbaijan's foreign capital is concentrated on strategic energy assets.
Another aspect of investment flows involves capital entering Azerbaijan. In the first half of the year, $3.7 billion in foreign direct investment was attracted to the country's economy. Of this amount, $2.8 billion went to the oil and gas sector, while $877 million was allocated to non-oil and non-energy sectors.
Renewable energy projects are also included in non-oil and gas investments. This indicates that the energy sector is not limited to traditional hydrocarbons and that new energy assets have become a significant destination for capital flows. Changes in the structure of external debt obligations
A deficit of approximately $3 billion emerged in the capital and financial account during the first half of 2026. The primary components of this were a $3.3 billion increase in net external financial assets and an increase of approximately $0.3 billion in net external financial liabilities.
Of particular note is the approximately $2 billion decrease in external financial liabilities related to portfolio investments. A key driver of this trend was the repurchase of Eurobonds previously issued within the framework of the Southern Gas Corridor.
"In the first quarter, the repurchase of Eurobonds previously issued for the Southern Gas Corridor project was successfully executed. This move served to reduce the country's external debt and financial obligations," Nasirov noted.
The significance of this transaction extends beyond the mere nominal reduction of debt; it is also important for improving the structure of external obligations, optimizing the future debt-servicing burden, and maintaining a more flexible position in financial markets.
Meanwhile, external financial liabilities classified under "other investments" rose by approximately $2.4 billion. This increase was primarily driven by funds raised to finance investment projects. Against the backdrop of rising loans, a decline was recorded in deposits and foreign currency cash assets.
Transport emerges as second source of foreign currency revenue, complementing energy earnings
Azerbaijan’s services balance traditionally runs a deficit. In the first half of the year, the overall deficit in services stood at approximately $1 billion. The bulk of this was attributable to construction and other business services procured from abroad for the oil and gas sector.
However, significant surpluses exist in specific service categories. Notably, the surplus in transport services grew by 9.9%, reaching $941 million.
"The surplus in transport services remains a key highlight. During the reporting period, this figure rose by approximately 10% to reach $941 million," Nasirov said.
An important point to note here is that transport revenues aren't linked solely to the Middle Corridor.
"Freight transport and transit services provided to non-residents—including tariff revenues—within the framework of the Southern Gas Corridor and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan projects play a primary role in this growth. High oil and gas prices also facilitate the increase of these revenues," the CBA official added.
This structure demonstrates that Azerbaijan's geographical location offers opportunities for monetization beyond the energy sector. Beyond export earnings, the transport of energy resources, transit, and logistics infrastructure generate service revenues for the country. Furthermore, the development of the Middle Corridor creates additional opportunities to expand this potential into a broader economic base.
A surplus was also maintained in tourism services, amounting to $47 million at the end of the first six months.
"Although a slight decline in the number of incoming tourists was observed, the surplus in the tourism balance was preserved. By the end of the six-month period, the surplus in tourism services stood at $47 million," Nasirov noted.
Remittances also support external accounts
Secondary income represents another positive component of the current account. In the first half of the year, personal remittances sent to Azerbaijan from abroad rose by 40.2 %, reaching approximately $748 million. Meanwhile, foreign remittances from the country fell by 12.7 % to $208 million.
As a result, net inflows from remittances amounted to approximately $540 million. The primary sources of these inflows were Russia, Türkiye, the U.S., Ireland, and Georgia.
This trend also creates a positive backdrop regarding the components of the current account excluding energy exports. In the first half of the year, the overall surplus regarding secondary revenues reached $525.7 million, an increase of 86.3% year-on-year.
Reserves remain a key buffer against external shocks
The substantial current account surplus and financial inflows are also reflected in the growth of strategic foreign currency reserves. By the end of the first six months, strategic foreign currency reserves stood at $85.8 billion. By September 1, this figure has risen to $90.77 billion.
In August alone, reserves increased by $3.96 billion, or 4.55%. Year-on-year, strategic foreign currency reserves are up by 15.7%.
CBA Chairman Taleh Kazimov said at a recent press conference that the current level of reserves provides a significant safety margin regarding the country's import capacity.
"Based on balance of payments statistics, strategic foreign currency reserves are sufficient to cover 40 months of imports of goods and services," Kazimov said.
The fact that reserves exceed the broad money supply by 3.4 times is also a crucial indicator of the financial system's resilience against external shocks.
High energy prices key advantage for 2026
The situation in the global energy market provides additional support for Azerbaijan's external position. Rising tensions in the Middle East, persistent risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and concerns regarding global oil supplies have kept prices at high levels.
ING estimates that Azerbaijan's current account surplus could reach 9–10% of GDP by 2026. According to the bank's assessment, higher energy prices are a key factor strengthening the external financial buffers of exporting nations like Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
"Under the new oil price scenario, Azerbaijan's current account surplus could amount to 9–10% of GDP this year, while the consolidated budget surplus could reach 4% of GDP," ING experts noted.
This estimate exceeds the Central Bank of Azerbaijan's (CBA) forecast of $6.1 billion. In its updated forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also projects that Azerbaijan will record a current account surplus of $7.57 billion in 2026.
Despite the varying figures, there is a common thread in the assessments of international institutions: favorable energy prices are creating a more positive outlook for Azerbaijan's external accounts in 2026 than previously anticipated. These conditions offer a significant advantage for the country in terms of increasing strategic foreign currency reserves, expanding opportunities for investment in international assets, strengthening the management of foreign obligations, and channeling additional financial resources into other sectors of the economy.
At the same time, indicators from the first half of 2026 reveal trends demonstrating that Azerbaijan's external economic capabilities aren't limited solely to energy revenues. Key elements of this picture include a 18% growth in non-oil and gas exports to $2 billion, a rise in the transport services surplus to $941 million, foreign direct investments totaling $5 billion, and strategic foreign currency reserves reaching $85.8 billion.
Azerbaijan's external financial position is currently being strengthened by the combined impact of a substantial current account surplus, extensive strategic foreign currency reserves, growing foreign investment opportunities, and transport-logistics potential. Meanwhile, the additional opportunities created by favorable prices in the global energy market provide a conducive environment for leveraging this financial base toward broader investments and regional economic initiatives.
Ultimately, the indicators for the first half of 2026 reveal that Azerbaijan’s external economic position is underpinned by both the strong financial foundation generated by energy revenues and opportunities emerging in other sectors. Key factors completing this picture include the volume of foreign direct investments, the growth of non-oil and gas exports, the widening surplus in transport services, and the high level of strategic foreign currency reserves. At this stage, Azerbaijan’s primary advantage lies in its ability to forge a stronger and more resilient external economic position by leveraging favorable energy revenues to expand opportunities in investment, transport, exports, and finance.
