BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 15. SOCAR’s capital expenditure is expected to average around AZN4 billion annually in 2026–2030, while the company’s EBITDA net leverage is projected to increase to about 2x by 2029, Fitch Ratings said.
Fitch expects SOCAR’s production decline to stabilise from 2028. The company is also expected to provide around AZN250 million annually to support Petkim through 2027, while dividends and distributions to the Azerbaijani government are forecast to average AZN1.8 billion per year over 2026–2030.
SOCAR’s EBITDA after dividends to non-controlling interests rose to AZN9.3 billion in 2025 from AZN5 billion in 2024, driven by the full-year consolidation of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and STAR refinery.
“As a result, EBITDA net leverage was low at 1.0x,” Fitch said.
The agency expects leverage to remain around 1.0x in 2026, as higher capital expenditure and M&A spending are offset by strong oil and gas prices and refining margins. EBITDA after dividends to non-controlling interests is forecast at AZN12 billion in 2026 before declining to AZN8–7.5 billion in 2028–2029.
At end-2025, SOCAR held AZN14 billion in cash and cash equivalents and around AZN1.5 billion in Fitch-adjusted marketable securities, compared with AZN15.1 billion in short-term debt.
During 2026, SOCAR repaid or refinanced AZN14.2 billion of debt using a combination of short- and long-term financing.
Fitch also highlighted SOCAR’s strategic role as Azerbaijan’s oil and gas producer, domestic refined-product supplier and a key participant in major energy projects, including the SGC. The agency noted that SOCAR is the country’s largest employer and taxpayer and the state’s main vehicle for developing the oil and gas industry.
