BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 24. Crude oil prices are expected to stand at $82/b in 2030, as indicated in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), Trend reports.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its latest outlook suggests that, according to STEPS, crude prices may decrease slightly to $80/b by 2050.
Reduced supply from existing fields doesn't lead to a significant overall price decrease, the agency noted. Several key resource-holding entities have adopted proactive market management strategies in recent years to maintain prices above their natural levels.
It's expected that they will persist in these efforts, resulting in higher costs for marginal projects compared to what the global supply-cost curve alone suggests, the IEA added.
Meanwhile, referring to the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), the IEA expects oil prices to stand at $74/b by 2030, declining gradually to $60/b in 2050.
The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), in turn, suggests a more drastic decline - from $77.5/b in 2030 to $24.3/b by 2050.
These prices encompass the operational expenses for extracting oil and gas from the marginal producer's field, the capital investment and operating costs associated with emissions reduction technologies, and upstream taxes, the agency noted.
Earlier, the IEA projected that Brent spot price will average $91 per barrel in 4Q2023 and is likely to rise to an average of $96 per barrel in 2Q2024, with some mild downward price pressures emerging in 2H2024.