BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 7. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a significant reduction in global oil inventories, which is anticipated to push Brent crude oil prices higher, Trend reports.
According to the EIA, global oil inventories are projected to decrease by an average of 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second half of 2024, with further declines expected in early 2025. This decrease is primarily driven by ongoing OPEC+ production cuts.
The EIA expects that this inventory reduction will contribute to an increase in Brent crude oil prices, which are predicted to rise from their current level below $80 per barrel to an average of $85 per barrel for the remainder of 2024 and to $89 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025.
However, the EIA also notes that the market will see a gradual shift to moderate inventory builds starting in mid-2025. This transition is anticipated after the expiration of voluntary OPEC+ supply cuts in the fourth quarter of 2024 and as production growth from non-OPEC+ countries begins to surpass global oil demand. The EIA estimates that global oil inventories will increase by an average of 0.3 million b/d in the latter half of 2025, leading to a decrease in Brent crude prices to $83 per barrel by the end of the year.
Despite recent fluctuations, including a July average Brent crude price of $85 per barrel—up $3 from June—the EIA projects that ongoing OPEC+ production cuts will continue to drive down global oil inventories and support higher oil prices in the near term.
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