BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 16. Global oil demand growth forecast for 2023 is expected to stand at 2.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) - unchanged from the previous estimations, Trend reports via monthly oil outlook from OPEC.
"This forecast is subject to many uncertainties including global economic developments, COVID-19 containment measures mainly in China and ongoing geopolitical tensions," OPEC said.
According to the forecast, the total world oil consumption next year now stands at 101.8 mb/d (99.6 mb/d in 2022).
"The OECD is projected to grow by 0.3 mb/d, to reach 46.5 mb/d. OECD Americas is expected to climb firmly, with US oil demand rising above 2019 levels, mainly due to the recovery in transportation fuels and light distillate demand," the report said.
However, OECD Europe and Asia Pacific are not projected to surpass the 2019 consumption levels, the forecast noted.
Moreover, persistent inflationary pressures observed recently could raise the risk of recession in OECD Europe.
"Accordingly, the economy of the region is projected to decelerate by 0.8 percent in 1Q22. Slowing growth momentum and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region could exacerbate supply chain bottlenecks for manufacturing activity. The combined effects of these factors are expected to take a toll on oil demand, which is projected to grow marginally by 30,000 b/d y-o-y. Nevertheless, expected gas-to-oil switching due to rising natural gas prices and steady improvements in air travel activity are expected to support demand for fuel oil and jet/ kerosene in the region during 1Q23. However, risks are still skewed toward a more severe and protracted downturn," OPEC explained.