BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 13. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that coal production in the United States will total 520 million short tons (MMst) in 2025, a 2% increase from 2024. Most of the gain occurred in the first half of the year, when production reached 267 MMst, Trend reports.
The growth was driven in part by a 6% rise in the Appalachia region, reflecting recovery from lower output following last year’s collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, as well as higher natural gas prices boosting demand for coal-fired power generation. Production is expected to decline slightly in the second half of 2025 to 255 MMst, as coal-fired plants draw down existing stockpiles.
Looking ahead to 2026, EIA expects U.S. coal production to fall to 490 MMst, as plant retirements and large on-site coal inventories weigh on output.
Coal exports are also projected to decline. Total exports in 2025 are expected at 97 MMst, down 10% from 2024, amid global oversupply and lower coal prices. Steam coal exports are forecast to fall 7% to 47 MMst in 2025 and 5% to 45 MMst in 2026, as domestic coal prices rise. Metallurgical coal exports are expected to drop 13% to 50 MMst in 2025 due to weak global prices, production cuts, and Chinese tariffs, with exports projected to remain flat in 2026 as global markets gradually recover.
