DUSHANBE, Tajikistan, October 6. The World Bank (WB) predicts that Tajikistan's current account deficit will be at around 2.4 percent of GDP in 2023, rise slightly to 2.9 percent in 2024, and further increase to 3.1 percent in 2025, Trend reports.
This forecast is based on the assumption of remittance flows normalizing and lower prices for key export commodities, such as metals and minerals.
The WB revised its forecast compared to the spring outlook, where the Bank projected a current account deficit of 1.5 percent in 2023, 1.8 percent in 2024, and 2.3 percent.
In 2023, the WB expects the fiscal deficit to be at 2.3 percent. They believe that to maintain macro-fiscal stability, authorities will need to allow more flexibility in the exchange rate and keep the fiscal deficit within 2.5 percent of GDP for 2024 and 2025, which aligns with the bank's forecast for these years.
The expenses for the construction of the Rogun Hydro Power Plant (HPP) and other major infrastructure projects are expected to be financed through loans from development partners and by streamlining other non-priority expenditures.
The government plans to continue increasing targeted social support to protect vulnerable layers of the population, with poverty projected to decrease from 12.4 percent in 2022 to 11.3 percent in 2023.
Tajikistan's current account balance resulted in a surplus of 4.3 percent in 2020, 8.2 percent in 2021, and 15.6 percent in 2022.