BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 4. Over the past 50 years, November 4 has acquired particular significance in relations between Iran and the United States. Numerous events and developments involving the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have been associated with this date. In Iran, November 4 is marked on the calendar as the National Day of Fighting Global Arrogance. Historical events involving Iran and the United States are particularly prominent on this day. Interestingly, the defeat of Republicans by their Democratic rivals in elections to both chambers of the US Congress on November 4 has created a particular atmosphere in Iran.
The first high-level reaction in Iran to the US elections came from Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the Iranian negotiating delegation at the Islamabad talks. In a post on X, he said that Americans had said "no" to war and that Iran supported this position. He also noted that Iran would respond if the US government betrayed the will of its own people.
A number of other Iranian officials subsequently issued statements. Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, Chief Justice of Iran, one of the country's three main branches of government, also wrote on X that the US president had lost both the war and the political battle. Iran, he said, would demonstrate further defeats for the United States. This is only the beginning.
Iran's new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, took a somewhat different approach to the US elections. He said that those who hoped a change of party or conduct, or the granting of any concessions to the United States, would lead Washington to abandon its hostility toward Iran were mistaken.
"Iran's imposition of control over the Strait of Hormuz and its attacks on US military bases in countries across the region were intended as a response to US attacks. At the same time, this is considered the first war against the United States at the regional level. If attacks against Iran are repeated, their scale will be much broader and greater," he said.
Now, let us turn to the main question: how likely are further attacks against Iran following the US elections? More broadly, what direction will relations between Iran and the United States take?
Both sides - the United States and Iran - have serious reservations about negotiations, reaching an agreement and ensuring that it is implemented and not abandoned. Each side seeks to blame the other for the lack of progress.
In recent months, alongside Pakistan and Qatar, Russia and China have also become increasingly active in matters related to Iran's nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and broader regional developments. Visits by Iranian officials to both Russia and China, the Russian foreign minister's trip to Tehran and other exchanges indicate that regional actors are in favour of ending the war. Both Iran and the United States have put forward demands, but they have been unable to find common ground on these issues for at least the past year and a half. As a result, attacks against Iran began, prompting Tehran to launch strikes against the other side's positions.
It can be assumed that major international players will seek to reduce tensions in the region by promoting an agreement similar to the 2015 nuclear deal, or one that incorporates the demands and concessions of both sides. The fate of more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched by Iran to 60% is among the issues most frequently raised by the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency.
At present, diplomatic exchanges between Iran and the United States are continuing through Qatar's mediation. As far as is known, neither side intends to back down from the conditions it has put forward. While it may seem unreasonable to expect Iran to have confidence in diplomatic efforts when the United States has taken no practical steps, serious proposals from China and Russia could help Tehran place greater trust in the diplomatic process.
The meeting in Tehran of the parties to the Mecca Pact should also be taken into account. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye are seeking to reduce regional tensions, depending on Iran's approach to this regional agreement.
From an economic perspective, the situation appears highly tense. The Strait of Hormuz, which once served as a route for the transportation of 15% of the world's energy supplies, along with other essential commodities, is now under threat. This is clearly unacceptable to any of the parties involved.
A large share of Iran's trade is conducted through its southern ports. The naval and air blockade is having a negative impact on the country's trade. Despite the economic and trade restrictions it faces, Iran remains unwilling to back down from its position in the face of the United States. The United States, meanwhile, is also facing certain difficulties as energy prices rise.
Taking all these developments and circumstances into account, the current picture suggests that the likelihood of a further escalation and a new outbreak of war in the near future is quite low.
However, it should not be forgotten that UN Security Council Resolution 2231, adopted in 2015, is no longer in force. The six resolutions that preceded it, along with the extensive sanctions imposed on Iran over its nuclear program, have been reinstated. This signals that unless the parties reach an agreement in the near future, war and tensions could flare up again.
