BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 4. Climate change will lead to a rise in temperature, a reduction in summer precipitation, and increase the risk of landslides, flash floods, and debris flows in the Kura river basin.
This was reflected in the report of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) titled “Glaciers to Farms Climate Risk and Capacity Assessment and Recommendations.”
According to the research, winter temperatures are expected to rise by about 1°C by 2035, and by up to 5°C by 2085.
Meanwhile, winter and autumn will become slightly wetter, while spring and summer will grow drier, with summer temperatures rising by as much as 5°C and rainfall declining by up to 20%.
“The shifts are likely to increase the risk of landslides, flash floods, and debris flows, as well as glacier lake outbursts in Georgia. More frequent “rain-on-snow” events in winter could also raise flood risks,” the report said.
The document pointed out that the retreat of glaciers is widespread in the Kura basin. This area is also characterized by small glaciers with an unstable snow cover, and water runoff in late summer is sustained to a significant extent by snowmelt. At the same time, the extent of permafrost is limited.
The research has been conducted under the Glaciers to Farms (G2F) program aimed at assessing climate risks to water resources and agricultural productivity in Central and West Asia.
Supported by the Green Climate Fund, ADB has conducted a glacier risk assessment for four representative watersheds: Kura, Naryn, Pyanj, and Swat.
This assessment analyzed 40 years of weather records to detect spatial and temporal variations in temperature, rainfall, and snowfall across mountain and lowland areas.
The G2F program is designed to complement ADB's existing country climate risk assessments and help strengthen long-term water security and agricultural resilience in the face of accelerating glacier retreat.
The Kura river is the largest river in the South Caucasus. Its total length is 1,515 km, of which 906 km pass through the territory of Azerbaijan. The area of the river basin is 188,000 square meters. km.
The Kura originates at an altitude of 2,740 meters on the northeastern slope of Mount Kizil-Gedik in Kars province in Türkiye. Flowing through the territories of three states - Türkiye, Georgia, and Azerbaijan - the river flows into the Caspian Sea.
Kura's water resources are formed from several sources: 36% comes from melted snow water, 30% from groundwater, 20% from rainfall and 14% from melted glacial water.
