BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 26. Global oil production is expected to peak in 2030 at 108 mb/d and then decline to 55 mb/d by 2050, with prices remaining around $50/b in real terms, says the latest forecast by Rystad Energy, Trend reports.
Under this scenario, approximately one-third of the world’s recoverable oil, or 500 billion barrels, may become stranded due to unprofitable projects, potentially limiting global warming to 1.9 degrees Celsius.
Rystad Energy's latest outlook reveals that global recoverable oil reserves have remained relatively stable at approximately 1,500 billion barrels, though this figure represents a decrease of about 52 billion barrels from 2023. The decline includes 30 billion barrels attributed to production over the past year and 22 billion barrels due to downward revisions of contingent resources from recent discoveries.
According to the agency's report, the most notable reductions are in Saudi Arabia, where the focus has shifted from offshore capacity expansions to onshore infill drilling. Argentina stands out as the only country with a significant increase this year, adding 4 billion barrels due to improved prospects in the Vaca Muerta shale formation.
The total recoverable oil resource of 1,500 billion barrels represents the upper limit of potential production over the next century or more. However, this limit assumes that oil demand remains unaffected by the energy transition, with prices rising significantly above $100/b. In this scenario, Rystad Energy's outlook predicts that oil production would peak around 2035 at 120 mb/d before declining sharply to 85 mb/d by 2050.
Rystad Energy's estimates indicate that total recoverable oil resources have decreased by 700 billion barrels since 2019, largely due to reduced exploration activities. This decline is attributed to investor concerns that new discoveries may be rendered unviable by the shift toward electric vehicles and anticipated decreases in oil demand and prices. According to Rystad Energy’s data, OPEC members collectively hold 657 billion barrels of recoverable oil, representing about 40% of the global total - well below the 1,215 billion barrels reported officially.
The top five countries for recoverable oil remain unchanged from 2023, according to Rystad Energy's outlook: Saudi Arabia leads with 247 billion barrels, followed by the US with 156 billion barrels, Russia with 143 billion barrels, Canada with 122 billion barrels, and Iraq with 105 billion barrels. Latin American countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Guyana, and Venezuela have either maintained or slightly increased their recoverable oil reserves.
Additionally, Rystad Energy reports a significant upward revision in proven oil reserves to 449 billion barrels, driven by increased onshore infill drilling in Saudi Arabia. This figure represents a lower bound of remaining reserves, assuming no new development projects or exploration activities are undertaken.