BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 13. If China’s liquified natural gas (LNG) imports recover to their 2021 levels, it would capture most of the overall increase in global LNG supply in 2023, Trend reports with reference to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“A return to stronger economic growth and eased covid restrictions could support the recovery of China’s LNG imports in 2023, to close to their 2021 levels. China is less reliant than the European Union on LNG cargoes sold on spot markets and the spot market. China is set to increase its level of destination-fixed contracts in 2023. If China’s LNG imports recover to their 2021 levels, it would capture most of the overall increase in global LNG supply in 2023 and limit the LNG volumes available to the European market. Under this assumption, we estimate that the European Union could increase its LNG imports by around 7 bcm in 2023,” reads the latest IEA report.
The report reveals that there are some short lead-time options that could boost the availability of LNG supply globally in 2023 above the 23 bcm assumed here.
“This includes improving the supply of feedstock gas to existing LNG plants and developing new smallscale, floating LNG (FLNG) liquefaction plants. Several small-scale FLNG projects are in various stages of development, primarily in Africa and the United States. Many of these projects still require regulatory approvals, need to secure feedstock gas supplies, and are subject to pending investment decisions. We estimate that the development of small-scale LNG projects and the improved availability of feedstock gas to existing facilities could result in an additional 10 bcm of LNG supply in 2023. Conversely, unplanned outages could limit the growth in new LNG supply to well below 20 bcm in 2023. The possibility of unexpected outages is heightened by high utilisation levels of available capacity in recent years, alongside postponed maintenance at some facilities.”
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