BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 17. The Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES) has upheld its Brent price outlook at $85.4/b for 2024 and $78.6/b for 2025, unchanged from the previous month, Trend reports.
Brent prices saw a quarterly increase of $1.7/b to $84.9/b in Q2 2024, fluctuating within a range of $75.8/b to $91.9/b since the year's outset, accompanied by a six-year low in implied volatility.
Throughout Q2, daily prices tested the upper boundary of this range, surpassing $85/b from mid-March to late April due to heightened tensions in the Middle East. Recent movements above $85/b since mid-June were driven by tightening market conditions ahead of anticipated summer demand, supported by ongoing OPEC+ production cuts. However, concerns over cooling demand in China and OECD product stock builds tempered these gains, leading OIES to maintain its Brent price forecast largely unaltered.
Anticipating Brent to average around $87/b in Q3 and Q4, OIES foresees a gradual retreat with prices settling in the $75-80/b range for 2025, averaging $78.6/b for the year. OPEC+ is expected to add 2.2 mb/d of production, influencing the market dynamics. The Brent Prospect, at $83.4/b for 2024, reflects risks of second-half demand growth shortfall, while for 2025, it rises slightly to $83.1/b, underscoring OPEC+'s proactive market management strategies amid uncertain conditions.
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