BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 24. In June 2024, European LNG imports totaled 9.26 Bcm, marking the lowest monthly volume since November 2021, Trend reports citing the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
Imports fell from 41.4 Bcm in Q2 2023 to 31.6 Bcm in Q2 2024, a decline of 10.7 Bcm (26 percent). The most significant volumetric decline occurred in the UK and North-Western Europe, where imports dropped from 24.9 Bcm to 17.6 Bcm, a decrease of 7.2 Bcm (29 percent), accounting for two-thirds of the overall reduction in European LNG imports during this period.
The sendout from European regasification terminals fell even faster than imports, indicating an accumulation of LNG stocks at import terminals. Inventory at EU-27 regasification terminals rose from 3.9 million cubic meters of LNG (2.3 Bcm of natural gas) on June 30, 2023, to 5.0 million cubic meters of LNG (3.0 Bcm of natural gas) on June 30, 2024. Similarly, UK LNG stocks increased from 9.50 TWh to 11.74 TWh (0.88 Bcm to 1.08 Bcm) over the same period, suggesting a 0.9 Bcm increase in European LNG stocks between June 2023 and June 2024.
Sendout from European regasification terminals dropped sharply from 39.8 Bcm in Q2 2023 to 27.6 Bcm in Q2 2024, a decline of 12.1 Bcm (31 percent). This decline was 1.4 Bcm greater than the drop in imports, with 0.9 Bcm attributed to inventory growth and the remaining 0.5 Bcm likely due to conversion factors and time lags between cargo arrivals and sendout.
The decline in LNG sendout began in July-August 2023, with consecutive months of year-on-year decreases. Between July 2023 and March 2024, the year-on-year decline ranged from 4 percent to 18 percent. In Q2 2024, the decline accelerated, peaking at 34 percent (4.8 Bcm) lower year-on-year in May 2024. For context, European LNG sendout in Q2 2021 was 25.6 Bcm, surged to 36.5 Bcm in Q2 2022, and further increased to 39.8 Bcm in Q2 2023. The fall to 27.6 Bcm in Q2 2024 represents an unwinding of the growth in 2022 and 2023 but still keeps European LNG imports around 8 percent above 2021 levels.
Looking ahead, the rest of 2024 may see continued year-on-year declines in European LNG sendout. However, a boost could occur if gas transit via Ukraine ceases on December 31. Nonetheless, any significant LNG 'supply push' into Europe is unlikely until 2026, as new export projects launch and ramp up.
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