BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 17. Global oil demand growth forecast for 2022 has been revised up by 140,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 2.3 mb/d, Trend reports via the latest oil market update from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Thus, world oil demand for the whole 2022 is set at 99.9 mb/d (99.8 mb/d in the last month’s report).
Meanwhile, world oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2022 is expected to decrease by 110,000 b/d, reaching 100.8 mb/d, up by 130 kb/d, compared with November's estimations, "with an OECD decline of 380,000 b/d that is partly offset by growth of 270,000 b/d in non-OECD. This compares to last month’s expectation of an overall contraction of 250,000 b/d in 4Q22," the report said.
As the IEA noted, the strong use of gas oil in key consuming countries outweighs the weak supply of petrochemical products to Europe and Asia.
"Global gasoil deliveries rose by 520,000 b/d y-o-y in 3Q22, exceeding expectations in almost all regions. Initial data for October indicate that much of this strength continued into early 4Q22 and we now expect quarterly gasoil demand to reach a standstill rather than contracting. This robust performance comes amid continued high consumer prices in key markets. In October, diesel prices were up by almost 50 percent year-on-year in the US, by 38 percent in Germany and 14 percent in China. On the other hand, industrial activity in several major economies remained relatively solid in October, according to purchasing manager indices (PMIs). Moreover, an apparent change in Chinese reporting boosted estimates of gasoil use while gas-to-oil switching, particularly in Europe, slightly exceeded our expectations," the IEA added.