BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 1. The International Monetary Fund expects the current account balance in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region to improve moderately over the medium term, following several years of elevated deficits, Trend reports.
According to the IMF’s latest regional outlook, the CCA’s average current account deficit is projected to narrow to 4.8 percent of GDP in both 2025 and 2026, after reaching 6.4 percent in 2024 and 8.8 percent in 2023.
The forecast reflects stabilizing trends among both oil importers and exporters in the region. For oil importers, external balances improved in 2024, supported by continued—though moderating—export growth, slower import expansion, and strong net remittance inflows. These trends are expected to stabilize over the next two years, as trade and remittance flows begin to taper and fiscal positions tighten.
Among oil exporters, the IMF notes that surpluses remained broadly unchanged in 2024, with lower balances in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan offset by a reduced deficit in Kazakhstan. Looking ahead, current account surpluses in oil-exporting countries are expected to narrow further, potentially turning into deficits as hydrocarbon production levels off in some economies.
Despite the expected narrowing of external balances, reserve coverage remains adequate across most CCA countries and is forecast to decline only gradually through 2026.
