BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 11. Global oil inventories have grown steadily over the first five months of 2025 and are expected to rise further through the remainder of the year, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Trend reports.
The EIA projects that global oil stockpiles will increase by an average of 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025—0.4 million b/d higher than previously forecast. For the rest of the year, inventory builds are expected to average 0.4 million b/d, with a moderate slowdown to 0.6 million b/d in 2026 as global oil markets begin to move toward balance.
The revised outlook reflects lower-than-expected oil demand across OECD countries as well as higher supply growth from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers.
In particular, the EIA noted a relatively flat U.S. crude oil production profile in the months ahead, which, combined with rising global consumption, is expected to gradually slow the pace of stock builds into next year.
The agency also made upward adjustments to its production forecasts for Kazakhstan and Brazil, citing stronger-than-expected output at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field and earlier-than-planned startup of Brazil’s Bacalhau FPSO facility.
The recent OPEC+ announcement to ease output constraints added near-term supply, further boosting the supply-demand imbalance in the short term, the report noted.
Despite the current inventory surplus, the EIA anticipates that market fundamentals may tighten over time as consumption rises and production growth stabilizes.
