BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 28. The first-quarter results of 2026 provide a clear indication of the accelerating transformation of Uzbekistan’s economy. In recent years, the country has prioritized liberalization, industrialization, and the attraction of foreign investment, and the early-year performance serves as a key indicator of the sustainability of these reforms and the ability to maintain growth momentum amid global economic uncertainty.
Preliminary data suggest that actual outcomes exceeded projections. Between January and March, Uzbekistan’s gross domestic product expanded by 8.7%, industrial production grew by 8%, the services sector increased by 16.1%, and agricultural output rose by 5.1%. Exports reached $5.8 billion, while foreign investment totaled $13.7 billion, and annual inflation declined to 7.1%.
These results reveal an important structural trend: economic growth is occurring simultaneously across multiple sectors, thereby reducing vulnerability to external market fluctuations and enhancing the sustainability of overall growth.
The services sector remains a principal driver of this expansion. Its growth of more than 16% reflects robust domestic demand and the expansion of trade, transport, banking, digital services, and small business activities. For a transitional economy, such development in the services sector is a key indicator of the deepening of market-oriented reforms.
Industry is also maintaining solid momentum. Uzbekistan continues its course toward production localization, deeper raw materials processing, machinery manufacturing, and the development of the textile and chemical industries. This is particularly important for increasing domestic value-added output and boosting non-commodity exports.
The authorities are also paying close attention to inflation. Despite the decline to 7.1%, officials in Tashkent acknowledge that rising prices remain one of the key challenges.
External factors are also adding pressure to prices. Rising global oil prices, changing logistics routes, and higher transportation costs are creating additional strain on imports and the domestic market. The International Monetary Fund also expects inflation in 2026 to remain above the Central Bank’s target level before moving closer to the goal in 2027.
Against this backdrop, investment activity is becoming one of the central pillars of economic strategy. The authorities have set a target of attracting $53 billion in foreign investment in 2026, with emphasis placed not only on volume, but also on project quality -job creation, export growth, and technological modernization of production.
Additional investor interest is being supported by steps to develop the financial market. In April, plans were announced to list a 30% stake in Uzbekistan’s National Investment Fund on the London and Tashkent stock exchanges. This would mark the first placement of a state Uzbek asset on the international capital market at such a scale.
The regional factor also remains important. Uzbekistan is the largest market in Central Asia by population and one of the fastest-growing in the region. For this reason, the country is increasingly being viewed as a potential manufacturing, logistics, and investment hub between China, the Middle East, and the CIS countries.
At the same time, structural challenges remain alongside the successes. These include the need to raise labor productivity, accelerate job creation, modernize infrastructure, and improve the efficiency of certain investment projects. According to the authorities, some previously launched enterprises are still operating below full capacity.
The first-quarter results show the key point: Uzbekistan is entering 2026 with strong economic momentum. If the country succeeds in keeping inflation under control, maintaining the pace of reforms, and effectively using incoming investment flows, Tashkent could strengthen its position as one of Eurasia’s new centers of growth.