BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 30. The United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) decision to exit OPEC+, effective May 1, has drawn significant attention from oil market participants, reflecting a long-brewing shift in strategy rather than a short-term reaction to market conditions, Priya Walia, Vice President, Commodity Markets – Oil at Rystad Energy, told Trend.
According to Walia, the move underscores years of tension between Abu Dhabi’s ambitions to expand production capacity and the constraints imposed by collective quota management within OPEC+.
“The UAE’s exit does not materially alter near-term supply availability, but it reflects a longer-term strategic shift toward greater production flexibility as the country seeks to monetize its expanding capacity base,” Walia said.
She noted that stepping outside the quota framework reshapes market expectations and weakens OPEC+’s control over spare capacity, as well as the assumption that future supply will continue to be managed through coordinated restraint.
“Rather than moving cleanly in one direction, prices are likely to become more volatile, driven increasingly by geopolitical headlines rather than policy signals from OPEC+,” she said. “Further out, as the market begins to rebalance, the weakening of OPEC+ as a mechanism to coordinate supply could amplify downside risks compared with previous cycles.”
Rystad Energy highlights that the UAE’s departure reflects a long-standing mismatch between its upstream expansion plans and the limits of collective production agreements.
Walia pointed out that despite receiving an additional 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) quota increase as part of the 2.2 million bpd unwind in early 2025, the UAE has consistently operated below its installed capacity. Prior to the current regional conflict, production stood at around 3.4 million bpd, significantly below capacity levels, before dropping to as low as 1.5 million bpd in April 2026 due to war-related disruptions.
“The country’s expansion strategy, led by ADNOC, includes several major brownfield projects. These include the Upper Zakum Expansion 2 project, expected to add 200,000 bpd in 2026, Bu Hasa with an additional 90,000 bpd in 2027, and South East Bab contributing 130,000 bpd in 2028. With a target of reaching 5 million bpd in capacity by 2027 and ambitions to scale up to 6 million bpd thereafter, the quota system increasingly conflicted with the commercial logic of these investments. The UAE’s exit also has implications for OPEC+’s ability to respond to supply disruptions.
As of February 2026, the group’s nominal spare capacity stood at approximately 5.98 million bpd, including Saudi Arabia’s 750,000 bpd of overproduction relative to its quota. Of this total, the UAE accounted for about 1.54 million bpd, roughly a quarter of the group’s spare capacity. With Abu Dhabi now outside the framework, OPEC+ effectively loses direct control over a significant portion of this buffer, reducing its collective ability to respond to market shocks,” she added.
While immediate production increases from the UAE are unlikely due to ongoing regional constraints, Rystad Energy notes that once conditions stabilize, additional volumes are likely to return on commercial rather than coordinated terms.
“The UAE has been a consistent contributor to OPEC+ output, with the eight-member grouping producing around 34 million bpd prior to the conflict, accounting for roughly 38 percent of global crude and condensate supply. Following the UAE’s exit, the remaining seven-member group’s share of global supply is expected to decline by around four percentage points. The divergence between an eight-member and seven-member production base is likely to become more pronounced in the second half of 2026, further reshaping global oil market dynamics.”