BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 12. The output from the OPEC+ is forecast to stand at 37.23 mb/d in 2025, Trend reports.
According to the forecast made by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the bloc's output is set to grow by 0.78 mb/d from 36.45 mb/d estimated for 2024.
The EIA projected OPEC+ oil production to stand at 37.08 mb/d in 2023.
Meanwhile, the agency anticipates a moderate increase of 0.6 mb/d in global liquid fuels production in 2024, marking a slowdown from the substantial 1.8 mb/d growth observed in 2023. Our forecast highlights the primary contribution to this growth coming from non-OPEC supply, expected to rise by almost 0.8 mb/d, counterbalancing a projected OPEC production decline of 0.2 mb/d.
The conclusion of existing OPEC+ production targets by the end of 2024 plays a role in the EIA projection that OPEC will enhance crude oil production by 0.7 mb/d in the following year. However, the agency anticipates this increase to be restrained as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ nations maintain some level of production cuts to stabilize markets.
Foreseeing OPEC+ production cuts leading to global oil inventory reductions in February and March, the agency also projects an average draw of 0.8 mb/d in 1Q2024. This draw is expected to exert upward pressure on oil prices in the upcoming months. Following a period of relatively balanced markets throughout the rest of 2024, the EIA forecast predicts a gradual shift towards moderate inventory builds in 2025, as the deceleration in oil demand growth is once again surpassed by increasing oil production growth.