BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 28. OPEC and OPEC+ have historically relied on members’ willingness to voluntarily withhold barrels from the market to stabilize oil prices, said Rystad Energy’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis, Jorge León, Trend reports.
In a market update, León said the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ represents a major structural shift for the group, removing one of its key sources of spare production capacity.
“The UAE, with around 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity and ambitions to produce more, takes a real tool out of the group’s hands,” León noted, adding that the move weakens OPEC’s ability to manage supply shocks and influence prices.
He said the timing of the decision reflects changing fundamentals in the global oil market, where demand is approaching a peak and incentives for producers with low-cost reserves are shifting toward maximizing output rather than maintaining quotas.
“With demand nearing a peak, waiting your turn inside a quota system starts to look like leaving money on the table,” he said.
Rystad warned that Saudi Arabia is likely to shoulder an increasing share of the burden in maintaining price stability, as the UAE’s exit removes one of the group’s key “shock absorbers.”
The analysis also highlighted longer-term implications for OPEC+, arguing that while the group has proven effective in managing short-term disruptions, its ability to stabilize markets is more limited in a structurally weakening demand environment.
According to Rystad, as oil demand begins to plateau or decline, producers may increasingly prioritize market share and revenue over coordinated restraint, raising questions about the durability of collective output management.
The UAE’s exit, combined with its significant spare capacity, could therefore contribute to a more fragmented global supply landscape and greater oil price volatility over time, as OPEC’s ability to balance the market diminishes.