BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 18. Global upstream investments are set to decline by 2% in 2025, signaling a plateau after the strong growth seen earlier this decade, according to research conducted by Aditya Saraswat, Senior Vice President of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, Trend reports.
Despite this overall dip, certain sectors, such as deepwater and offshore shelf investments, are expected to see modest growth.
Deepwater investments are forecast to rise by 3%, driven by significant developments in Suriname, Mexico, and Türkiye, which are expected to boost activity in these regions. Offshore shelf investments will also experience a 2% growth, with increased activity projected in Indonesia, Qatar, and Russia.
However, shale and tight oil investments face a challenging year ahead, with Rystad Energy predicting an 8% decline in 2025. This reduction is attributed to a combination of lower activity levels and declining unit prices, marking a slowdown for the sector.
On the demand side, global liquids demand is expected to grow by about 1 mb/d next year. However, this growth comes amid a faster-than-anticipated increase in non-OPEC+ oil supply, which is predicted to rise by approximately 1.4 mb/d. This expansion, led by tight oil and deepwater projects, is expected to put downward pressure on oil prices, creating an oversupplied market.
In addition, natural gas liquids (NGL) and other liquids are projected to grow by more than 300,000 b/d in 2025, further contributing to supply growth.
Looking ahead, Rystad Energy highlights the pivotal role OPEC+ will play in managing the oil market. The organization's balancing act—attempting to control its market share while facing the increasing output of non-OPEC+ producers and slowing demand growth—will be crucial in determining oil price stability in the coming year.