BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 13. Global oil demand is expected to grow at a faster pace in 2025, with an increase of just over 1 million barrels per day (mb/d), reaching 103.9 mb/d, up from 830,000 barrels per day in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
However, the IEA has slightly reduced its growth forecast for the first quarter of 2025 to 1.2 mb/d, primarily due to weaker-than-expected delivery data from emerging markets. Despite a slower growth pace, total oil demand in 2024 saw a rise of 830,000 barrels per day, similar to initial estimates made in June 2023.
The IEA attributes this growth largely to demand for petrochemical feedstock products, which accounted for most of the increase in oil demand since pre-COVID levels. Other key contributors included jet/kerosene use, which surged by 400,000 barrels per day as China and other Asian markets rebounded. However, gasoil demand saw a decline of 160,000 barrels per day, largely due to weaker industrial activity, while gasoline consumption grew at a slower rate of just 90,000 barrels per day.
For 2025, the IEA projects a continued increase in demand, with petrochemical feedstocks, especially ethane and LPG, accounting for the largest share of growth. Despite this, growth in refined product demand is expected to remain modest, with biofuels supply set to rise by nearly 100,000 barrels per day.
The IEA also notes that any economic downturns or slowdowns in key emerging markets could lead to a potential contraction in demand for some oil products.
