BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 14. OPEC has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), citing updated first-quarter data and the potential impact of recently announced U.S. trade tariffs, Trend reports.
According to the latest outlook, oil demand in OECD countries is now projected to grow by 40,000 b/d in 2025, a downward revision of 60,000 b/d from the previous assessment. Growth in the OECD is expected to be led by the Americas, supported by a recovery in demand from the Asia Pacific region.
In non-OECD countries, oil demand is forecast to increase by around 1.25 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, down by 90,000 b/d compared to earlier estimates. The main drivers of this growth are China, India, and other Asian countries, along with additional support from the Middle East and Latin America.
OPEC noted that oil demand in non-OECD regions will continue to benefit from robust air travel, steady road transport activity—including diesel and trucking—and continued industrial, construction, and agricultural activity. Moreover, capacity additions and petrochemical developments, particularly in China and the Middle East, are expected to contribute to demand growth.
Looking ahead to 2026, OPEC also revised its global oil demand growth estimate down to 1.3 mb/d due to the anticipated economic effects of new U.S. trade measures. OECD oil demand is projected to increase by 80,000 b/d in 2026, while non-OECD demand is expected to grow by 1.20 mb/d.
