Azerbaijan, Baku, Nov. 5 / Trend T.Konyayeva /
The victory of Republicans in the midterm elections in the U.S. Congress will likely not affect the policies of Washington towards Iran, but the Obama administration can not avoid serious pressure from their side, experts say.
"I don't believe that the Republican controlled House will make much difference to America's Iran Policy. The president is in charge of foreign policy," Joshua Landis, Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at American University of Oklahoma, wrote in an e-mail to Trend.
According to the results of the midterm elections, held in the U.S. November 2, the Republican Party won an overwhelming majority in the lower house of Congress (House of Representatives). According to the last counting of votes, the Republicans will take 239 and the Democrats - 183 seats in the lower house of parliament. The Democrats preserved a majority in the Senate, but lost in six states, including Illinois. Earlier, Obama was elected from this state.
According to Landis, the same people in the National Security Council and Treasury department will be overseeing sanctions.
After the UN Security Council adopted a resolution on June 9 1929 on introduction of the fourth package of sanctions against Iran from 2006, the U.S. Congress adopted a bill on unilateral anti-Iran sanctions on June 24.
According to this bill, the sanctions will be imposed on any enterprise or individual who assist Iran in the oil refinery or in the development of refining capacity, or have contacts with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, or with the Iranian banks, which are included in the list of those subject to sanctions.
"The White House runs foreign policy and there will be no change in U.S. policy on Iran," Barry Rubin,the director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, wrote in an e-mail to Trend.
As regards policy toward Iran, most Republicans see Obama's apologetic approach to Iran as a total failure and counter-productive, Philip Carl Salzman, Professor of Anthropology at McGill University, Adjunct Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies told Trend by e-mail.
The Republicans will want a tougher and more active response to Iran, such as a return to a policy of isolation for Syria, Iran's closest ally, instead of Obama's failed attempt to beg Syria to be good, such as a more active response to Hezbollah's gobbling up of Lebanon," he said.
Hezbollah is a Lebanese Shi'ite militant organization and political party, based on the ideology of Ruhollah Khomeini, created by the leaders of the Islamic revolution in Iran. It is considered a terrorist organization in Canada, the Netherlands, Israel, and Egypt, and partly in Australia and the UK. It receives financial and military support from Iran and Syria.
In addition, Salzman, The Republicans may call on willingness to take military action as a last resort to stop Iran's military nuclearization.
Despite the statement by the Iranian leadership that the nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes and covering the energy needs, the international community is concerned about the possible military component of Iran's nuclear program.
The Republican's another concern is that the Obama administration has inactively looked on while Turkey turns increasingly to Iran and Syria, Salzman noted.
"The Republicans are likely to want it made clear that Turkey will pay a price for joining America's enemies,"he said. "The Republicans will be more definite about naming Iran and Syria enemies of the United States."
Turkey, a neighbor of Iran and one of the leading countries in the region, opposed against toughening sanctions against Iran. In late March, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke against imposing new sanctions against Iran, and later, in mid April, the Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu clearly expressed his country's position, which is the reluctance of Turkey to take further sanctions.
A tripartite declaration on uranium exchange was reached on May 17 between Iran, Turkey and Brazil. The foreign ministers of these three countries signed a draft agreement for the exchange of Tehran's low-enriched uranium for highly enriched uranium for Tehran's research reactor on Turkish territory.
Moreover, Turkey has become one of the two UN Security Council member countries who voted against the adoption of resolution 1929, containing sanctions against Iran.
Salzman think many Republicans, and a minority of Democrats, have viewed President Obama as the first Post-American President and more pro-United Nations and the international "community" of nations, especially the so-called "Third World."
"Now that they have regained significant power, the Republicans, along with some Democrat allies, will demand a stiffer, more pro-American foreign policy, and probably a more pro-active response to foreign challenges," Salzman said.
According to the Iranian MP Ismail Kosari, if Democrats do not win the subsequent stages, the U.S. policy might change in respect of some countries and pressure could increase on them.
"Likely to establish control over Iran, the U.S. could increase pressure on it," Kosari, deputy chairman of the commission on national security and foreign policy of the Iranian Parliament, wrote in an e-mail to Trend.
On the other hand, he said, during Bush's governance, the Republicans lost for several times, so now they can agree to cooperate with the Obama administration. "Maybe the Republicans will be softer than Democrats, said Kosari - in any case, it needs to await for further developments."
"Will the Republicans succeed in stiffening Obama's backbone, and wean him from his self-image as an All-World Flower Child trying to spread the love? There will be serious pressure on Obama, but we shall have to wait and see what effect it will have," said Salzman.
T.Jafarov contributed to the article.