BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 16. Azerbaijan's current account surplus is expected to decrease in 2023, the Renaissance Capital investment bank said in its latest outlook, Trend reports.
In Azerbaijan, GDP growth resumed after a decline in January, with a 2M23 growth at modest 0.4% YoY.
"As in the past year, the non-oil and gas sector was the main driver with the growth of accelerating to 4.6 percent year-on-year (after 1.7 percent in January), while the decline in the oil and gas sector eased to -3.6 percent year-on-year (after -4.6 percent in January)," the report noted.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan announced plans for gas exports in 2023, which implies exports at 24 bcm (half of which should be exported to Europe). As the bank believes, this implies growth moderating to 8 percent year-on-year, after 18 percent in 2022.
"The transport infrastructure remains one of the constrains for a more intensive increase in gas exports, and Azerbaijan announced a plan to expand the capacity," the bank noted.
As the Renaissance Capital expects, due to lower energy prices and lower oil production this year, this will narrow the current account surplus from a record high of 30 percent of the GDP in 2022 to below 20 percent in 2023.
Furthermore, Renaissance Capital forecasts Azerbaijan's GDP growth in 2023 at 3 percent.
According to the bank, Azerbaijan's GDP growth in 2022 reached 4.6 percent year-on-year, decelerating from 5.6 percent in 2021.