BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 16. The IMF has raised its 2026 and 2027 economic growth forecasts for China despite expecting the country's expansion to continue moderating.
This was reflected in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) updated July 2026 report, ''World Economic Outlook'', titled ''The Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology.''
According to the report, China's real GDP is projected to grow by 4.6% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027. Compared with the IMF's April forecast, the outlook for 2026 was raised by 0.2 percentage points, while the 2027 projection was increased by 0.1 percentage points.
The IMF noted that China's economy expanded by 5% in both 2024 and 2025. However, growth is expected to slow in 2026 due to high oil prices and uncertainty.
''China’s 2026 growth is projected to slow to 4.6 percent, as higher global oil prices, together with protracted uncertainty and structural headwinds, are expected to weigh on activity,'' the fund stated.
More broadly, the IMF projects growth in emerging market and developing economies to slow to 3.8% in 2026 before recovering to 4.5% in 2027. The report says growth prospects vary across countries depending on factors including commodity dependence, exposure to geopolitical developments, remittance and tourism inflows, financial conditions, and participation in global technology value chains.
Meanwhile, China remains the world's second-largest economy and one of the biggest contributors to global economic growth, making its performance a key driver of demand for trade, energy, and industrial commodities worldwide. The country's export-oriented economy relies heavily on stable and diversified international transport routes linking Chinese manufacturers with markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia.
In recent years, Beijing has increasingly sought to diversify these corridors amid geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, giving greater importance to the Middle Corridor - also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). The route forms part of the broader East-West connectivity network, linking China with Europe through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye.
As China seeks to sustain export growth while diversifying its international supply chains, the Middle Corridor continues to gain momentum. That assessment is broadly consistent with the view of the International Transport Forum (ITF).
In an exclusive interview with Trend, the organization said that the Middle Corridor will retain its strategic role in Eurasian trade despite the potential improvement of alternative routes through Iran.
''The Middle Corridor would nevertheless retain strategic value as a diversified Asia–Europe route that avoids both Russia and Iran. It will continue to benefit from strong political and investment support for Eurasian connectivity,'' the organization said.
