BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 15. The countries of Central Asia have wrapped up the first half of 2026 with results that reveal not only the current momentum, but also the trends likely to shape the region's economic development in the second half of the year.
After several years of accelerated growth, the region's economies are gradually settling into a more balanced pace. This does not signal weaker economic activity, however. On the contrary, the first six months of the year show that Central Asia is increasingly drawing on several sources of growth at once - infrastructure projects, domestic consumption, industry, transport connectivity, and inflows of international capital.
According to the Eurasian Development Bank's forecast, the combined size of Central Asia's economy will exceed $600 billion for the first time in 2026, with GDP growth topping 6.5%. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development puts regional growth at 5.6%, while the World Bank points to continued strong momentum despite external headwinds, including conditions in commodity markets and a slowdown among major trading partners. The main drivers remain investment in infrastructure and energy, construction, growth in services, domestic demand, and elevated gold prices, which continue to support export revenues in several countries across the region.
Kazakhstan remains one of the most telling examples. Although first-quarter GDP growth came in at 4.1% - below last year's figures due to temporary disruptions in oil production and export-logistics constraints - fiscal results point to underlying economic resilience. Construction, services, and investment continue to offset the impact of the oil sector, and international organizations still project the country's growth for the full year at 4.6–5.5%.
The dynamics in public finances are particularly notable. In the first half of the year, revenues to Kazakhstan's republican budget rose 24.6%, reaching 8.5 trillion tenge (roughly $18 billion), while tax revenues climbed more than 29%.
"The positive trend in revenues was driven by higher prices for key export commodities and increased foreign trade activity. In addition, according to the electronic invoicing system, sales turnover rose almost 12%, or by 10.8 trillion tenge," Kazakhstan's Deputy Finance Minister Yerzhan Birzhanov said at a government meeting.
According to Birzhanov, the formal sector of the economy is also expanding. "The number of business entities, including self-employed individuals, reached 2.9 million, up by more than 499,000 since the start of the year. The number of VAT payers grew by 22,300, to 158,200. This is an important result. It shows that tax reform should be viewed not only as a fiscal tool, but also as a mechanism for bringing economic activity out of the shadow economy," he stressed.
These figures indicate that Kazakhstan's economy today no longer relies solely on the raw-materials sector. A broader tax base, a growing number of registered businesses, and the digitalization of government processes are becoming additional sources of resilience, particularly amid volatility in global commodity markets.
A similar trend is visible in Uzbekistan, although the structure of growth differs there. The republic remains one of the region's fastest-growing economies. First-quarter GDP rose 8.7%, driven by strong domestic demand, remittances, and growth in services, industry, and construction. The construction sector alone expanded 15.5% year-on-year. Ongoing reforms and privatization remain important drivers of economic activity, while inflation continues to ease gradually.
International financing figures are similarly telling. According to the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD), Uzbekistan received $690 million in approved sovereign financing from international financial institutions, development agencies, and climate funds between January and June. That placed the country fifth among the 13 Eurasian states covered by the fund's research.
Commenting on the updated figures, Gennady Vasiliev, the fund's director of the partnerships department, highlighted the value of the accumulated analytical database.
"We created the SFD as a tool to bring together scattered information on sovereign financing across the Eurasian region into a single analytical system. Today, the database covers operations totaling more than $300 billion and enables analysis of long-term trends, shifts in sector priorities, the distribution of financing across countries, and the activity of international financial institutions. Our goal is to provide governments, researchers, and international organizations with open and convenient access to objective data," he said.
For Uzbekistan, this means not only an inflow of new resources, but also sustained interest from international institutions in projects tied to economic modernization, infrastructure development, and government reforms.
Kyrgyzstan illustrates yet another development model. Where Kazakhstan is pursuing large-scale economic diversification and Uzbekistan is leaning on reform and investment, Kyrgyzstan continues to actively tap the potential of major infrastructure projects. The country's economy grew 10.1% in the first quarter and 12.4% for the January–April period. The main contributions came from construction, industry, and trade, along with projects such as the Kambarata-1 hydropower plant and the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway. International financial organizations expect Kyrgyzstan to retain some of the region's highest growth rates for 2026 as a whole.
This mix of development models is becoming one of the defining features of Central Asia today. While some economies focus on expanding their domestic markets, others are betting on infrastructure, exports, or attracting international capital. As a result, the region's resilience is no longer built on a single factor, but on several complementary drivers of economic growth working in parallel.
Tajikistan is also maintaining strong growth. The country's economy expanded 8% year-on-year in the first quarter. The main sources of growth were industry, energy, transport, and a sharp rise in fixed-capital investment, which grew 34%. Hydropower projects continue to play a significant role, chief among them the construction of the Rogun hydropower plant, alongside growth in the cement and metallurgy industries. At the same time, inflation remains among the lowest in the region, at around 4%, providing an additional buffer of macroeconomic stability.
Authorities have already outlined the main tasks for the second half of the year. At a board meeting of the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, officials reviewed the sector's performance for January–June and set out further priorities.
"After reviewing the main report, meeting participants and enterprise heads discussed current production issues and identified strategic priorities for the coming quarter aimed at ensuring the stable operation of the energy system and the effective management of water resources," the ministry said in a statement.
Regional energy cooperation also continues to expand. Over the first six months of the year, natural gas imports from Uzbekistan to Tajikistan reached 126.4 million cubic meters, up 7.3 million cubic meters compared with the same period last year - reflecting both the economy's growing needs and deepening energy cooperation between the two countries.
Turkmenistan also reported continued positive momentum. According to official data, the country's GDP grew 6.3% in the first half of the year, while natural gas output exceeded 39 billion cubic meters. Oil production over the same period totaled more than 4.1 million tons.
Capital investment also continued to rise. According to government data, investment aimed at developing the national economy grew 4.3%, reaching 16.5% of GDP. Of the total investment volume, 45.1% went to production facilities, while 54.9% was directed toward social and cultural infrastructure projects.
Although the economic models of Central Asian countries differ, the results of the first half of the year point to several shared trends.
The first is that the region is investing more actively in infrastructure. New railway routes, hydropower projects, transport-network modernization, and expanding energy capacity are becoming the foundation of long-term growth in nearly every country.
The second is the growing role of domestic sources of growth. Whereas a few years ago attention was focused mainly on commodity exports, the contribution of construction, industry, services, and domestic consumption is now clearly increasing. This is especially visible in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, where these sectors account for a significant share of economic growth, while Kazakhstan continues to broaden its tax base and encourage the development of non-resource industries.
The third trend is sustained strong interest from international financial institutions in the region. Sovereign financing, participation by development banks, and the implementation of major infrastructure projects all point to Central Asia remaining one of the most attractive destinations for long-term investment in Eurasia.
At the same time, several factors will continue to shape the economic agenda in the second half of the year. These include the trajectory of global energy and gold prices, trade developments with key partners such as China and Russia, and the implementation of major infrastructure projects capable of giving additional momentum to economic growth.
The first six months of 2026 show that Central Asia continues to strengthen its economic position. Despite differences in the structure of their national economies, countries across the region are steadily increasing investment, expanding transport connectivity, modernizing industry and the energy sector, and attracting international financing. This combination of factors, together with ongoing economic diversification, will largely determine Central Asia's development in the second half of the year and lay the groundwork for the region's continued growth.
