BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 12. Retail gasoline prices in most of the United States are projected to decline through the end of 2026, according to the latest outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Trend reports.
However, the West Coast is expected to see annual price increases next year due to reductions in refinery capacity.
The forecasted drop in gasoline prices is largely driven by lower crude oil prices, which make up about half of the total cost at the pump. The EIA estimates that Brent crude oil will average $66 per barrel in 2025 - nearly $15 less than in 2024 - resulting in an anticipated decrease of roughly 35 cents per gallon in retail gasoline prices nationwide.
Looking ahead to 2026, Brent prices are expected to fall by another $7 per barrel, which could reduce gasoline prices by an additional 16 cents per gallon on average across the U.S.
Despite these decreases, the benefits of lower crude prices are partially offset by rising refiner and retail margins. These margins - the difference between crude oil costs and gasoline prices at wholesale and retail levels - are widening due to a decline in U.S. refinery capacity. This trend includes the recent closure of the LyondellBasell Houston refinery, which had a capacity of approximately 264,000 barrels per day.
The reduction in refining capacity, particularly on the West Coast, is contributing to higher gasoline prices in that region, where consumers can expect annual price increases next year.
