BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 11. Natural gas prices in the United States are projected to rise steadily throughout the second half of 2025, driven by a combination of stronger demand and slowing production growth, according to the latest outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Trend reports.
The EIA forecasts that the Henry Hub spot price - the national benchmark for natural gas - will average over $4.30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the second half of 2025, a significant increase from the May average of $3.12/MMBtu. On an annual basis, the average Henry Hub price is expected to rise by more than 80% compared to 2024.
The upward pressure on prices is largely attributed to seasonal demand patterns, particularly the increased use of air conditioning during the summer months, which boosts natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. At the same time, U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to grow by less than 3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) this year, while combined domestic consumption and exports are expected to increase by nearly 4 Bcf/d.
Although inventories have recently surpassed the five-year average, the EIA expects this trend to reverse in the coming months. As demand continues to outpace supply, natural gas storage levels are projected to dip below the five-year average by October, tightening the market and supporting further price increases.
