BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 28. In 2022, coal contributed to over 60 percent of China's electricity generation, though significantly lower than its peak at 81 percent in 2007 and an average of 73 percent over the last two decades, Trend reports.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the power sector currently represents more than 60 percent of China's coal consumption.
Despite this, growing electricity demand prompted China to add nearly 40 GW of new coal capacity annually over the past five years, surpassing the combined new coal capacity of the rest of the world during the same period, the agency pointed out. In 2022, approximately 90 GW of new coal-fired capacity received approval for construction, with an additional 50 GW in the planning stages. This adds to the almost 100 GW already under construction by year-end, indicating a continued rise in China's total coal capacity until 2030.
However, coal output from power plants in China reaches its peak around 2025 and decreases before 2030 in various scenarios, the IEA noted. This shift occurs because the average capacity factor of coal plants in China drops to just over 40 percent in 2030 in the STEPS scenario and 35 percent in the APS, compared to 53 percent in 2022.
The rationale is that China will increasingly employ its coal-fired power plants for flexibility rather than bulk energy delivery, although the speed and extent of this transition may vary, the IEA explained. Beyond 2030, the paths for unabated coal-fired generation diverge rapidly, with coal usage declining more swiftly in the APS compared to the STEPS.
The ultimate reduction of coal-fired power and associated emissions in the long term depends on the scenario, contingent on the ability of renewable energy growth to outpace overall demand growth. Central to this growth is the ongoing expansion of solar PV and wind installations in China, with substantial manufacturing capacity, particularly in solar PV. In one of the scenarios, solar PV installed capacity approaches 5,400 GW by 2030.
