BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 19. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts global LNG market growth of just under 3% year-on-year, or about 15 bcm, reflecting a significant acceleration compared to 2023, Trend reports.
Although LNG supply increased by 4.5% in Q1 2024, it saw a slight year-on-year decline in Q2—the first quarterly drop since the Covid pandemic—resulting in a modest 2.3% growth for the first half of the year.
On the demand side, trends were more consistent. Europe’s LNG demand continued to ease in Q2 2024, while Asia maintained its growth trajectory. The IEA predicts that LNG market growth will pick up slightly in the second half of 2024, driven by new capacity coming online and steady operations in several smaller and medium-sized exporting markets.
Asia is expected to remain a major driver of LNG demand, though growth rates may not match the double-digit increases seen in the first half of the year. In Europe, the decline in LNG imports is anticipated to be less pronounced than in H1 2024, due to lower summer demand and typical weather conditions later in the year.
The United States is set to lead the expansion in export capacity this year, with both existing facilities and new plants contributing. Notably, Freeport LNG's extended outages in Q2 2024 were linked to upgrades aimed at increasing liquefaction capacity by about 10%, with these benefits expected to materialize in the latter half of the year.
In late April 2024, Venture Global announced that LNG production at its ~18 bcm Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 project would begin in mid-2024. In China, LNG imports are set to exceed 2021 levels, reaching around 109 bcm in 2024, despite a slowdown in growth. The country is also expected to add 45 bcm/year of regasification capacity, a 30% increase year-on-year.
India’s ongoing spot purchases are projected to push its 2024 LNG imports close to the 2020 record high of approximately 37 bcm. In contrast, Europe is expected to reduce its LNG imports by nearly 10% year-on-year, with most of this decrease occurring in the first half of the year.