BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 12. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest outlook, forecasting a significant decline in U.S. coal production in 2024 despite an increase in exports, Trend reports.
The EIA projects total coal production will fall to approximately 500 million short tons (MMst), a 13% decrease compared to 2023. The decline is largely attributed to falling domestic consumption of coal, particularly in the electric power sector.
Although U.S. coal exports have remained strong, domestic demand continues to weaken, leading to an overall reduction in coal production. The EIA revised its forecast for U.S. electric power coal consumption downward by 1% for 2024, bringing the total to 379 MMst. The revision follows cooler-than-expected temperatures in August across the mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions, which reduced demand for electricity generation.
"While coal exports have provided some support to production, the continued decline in domestic coal consumption, particularly for electricity generation, is expected to outweigh any export gains," the EIA report stated.
In addition to lower demand from the power sector, overall coal consumption in the U.S. is expected to decrease by 2% compared to 2023. The decline in production, however, is projected to outpace the drop in consumption, as a significant portion of coal use will be supplied by withdrawals from existing inventories rather than new production.
The anticipated reduction in coal output reflects the broader trend of the U.S. transitioning away from coal as a primary energy source, with utilities increasingly shifting toward natural gas and renewable energy. As the country approaches the shoulder season—typically a period of reduced electricity demand in the spring and fall—coal-fired power generation is expected to further decline.