ASTANA, Kazakhstan, December 1. Kazakhstan’s National Bank has revised its inflation forecasts upward for the next three years, citing stronger-than-expected price growth and rising inflation expectations, Trend reports via the NBK.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) said it now expects inflation at 12-13% in 2025, easing to 9.5-12.5% in 2026. By the end of 2027, inflation is projected to slow to 5.5-7.5%. The revisions reflect this year’s inflation consistently exceeding earlier projections, as well as elevated household expectations.
The forecast also factors in more predictable increases in regulated tariffs, following the updated trajectory of the 'inflation +5%' price reform planned for 2026-2027.
The wider range for 2026 reflects increased uncertainty tied to tax reform, demand reaction, and a sharp expansion of quasi-budget financing, which the central bank said is likely to have a stimulatory effect on the economy.
The NBK said disinflation over the forecast horizon will be supported by a moderately tight monetary stance, fiscal consolidation and measures under the government’s joint action programme. At the same time, further liberalisation of the fuel market and strong domestic demand, boosted by quasi-fiscal spending, will continue to put upward pressure on prices.
Key risks include widening demand-supply imbalances, faster external inflation, rising expectations, and secondary effects from higher regulated tariffs, fuel prices and VAT increases. A major source of uncertainty is the government’s plan to expand financing via the state holding Baiterek, expected to reach 8 trillion tenge (nearly $15.5 billion) - 4.4% of GDP - in 2026, which the NBK warned could heighten inflationary pressure and offset part of the planned fiscal tightening.