BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 12. EU will inevitably adjust its gas demand downward, said Anne-Sophie Corbeau Global Research Scholar, Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affair, Trend reports with reference to the International Gas Union (IGU).
She recalled that daily Russian gas volumes as of late September are at less than 20 percent of the average of 2021.
“Now that Nord Stream 1 and 2 have been sabotaged, the likelihood of Russian gas supplies coming back to higher levels is reduced, although Gazprom suggested on October 3 that it could maybe use the last undamaged 27.5-bcma Nord Stream 2 string if the inspection confirms it is operational and “if a decision is made to start supplies.” Given the opposition to Nord Stream 2, it does not sound that likely. Based on Gazprom’s Twitter announcement on September 28, it seems that the supplies through Ukraine could be at risk due to a disagreement with Naftogaz,” noted the analyst.
Corbeau does not think that the remaining supplies through TurkStream, which supply among others Hungary, will be stopped.
“So, the worst case scenario would be that in 2023, we are left with only Turkstream, which would be the equivalent of roughly 13 bcma to the EU based on current flows. That is compared with 140 bcm of Russian pipeline gas delivered to the EU in 2021. This is not something that only additional supplies of LNG or alternative sources of pipeline gas will be able to replace – there is no 130 bcma of spare capacity in the global gas system,” said the expert.
She pointed out that in January-August 2022, LNG imports to the EU increased by around 30 bcm. “Even taking into account higher Norwegian, Azeri gas flows in 2022, and potentially higher gas pipeline flows from Algeria in 2023, an increase in UK gas production and the ability of the country to serve as a bridge to get more LNG towards Europe through the Interconnector and BBL pipelines, it is obvious that EU gas demand will have to adjust downward.”
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