BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 4. OPEC+ has sufficient spare capacity to counterbalance any supply disruptions resulting from U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, told Trend.
“However, given the sacrifices the group has made to stabilize oil prices in recent years, it is expected to tolerate Brent prices trending higher from current levels,” says BMI.
At its February meeting, OPEC+ reaffirmed its planned production schedule, with gradual output increases set to begin in April at a rate of 138,000 barrels per day (b/d), excluding compensation cuts. However, if oil prices continue to decline, the likelihood of OPEC+ intervening again—potentially delaying production hikes—grows stronger.
“One of the major variables affecting OPEC+ forecasts is the potential restart of oil exports from the Kurdistan region of Iraq via Türkiye. The Iraqi government recently announced that shipments could soon resume, beginning at 185,000 b/d and increasing thereafter. The decision is reportedly linked to pressure from U.S. sanctions, but multiple uncertainties remain.
Although the export pipeline is technically operational and key political disputes—including arbitration issues between Ankara and Baghdad—have been addressed, challenges persist. The Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIK), which represents around 60% of the region’s output, stated that no formal agreements have been reached with producers regarding commercial terms and advance payment guarantees. The Iraqi government has invited stakeholders to discuss the issue this week,” BMI experts noted.
Beyond the uncertainty surrounding the restart timeline, the net impact on Iraq’s overall oil exports remains unclear
“Historically, when the Kurdistan pipeline was shut down, Iraq compensated for the loss by ramping up production in its southern fields. If exports from Kurdistan resume, Iraq may choose to curb output in the south to maintain its compliance with the OPEC+ production cut agreement. However, such a move is not guaranteed,” said the company.
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