BAKU, Azerbaijan, March. 15
Trend:
An Iranian economist warned that the hope for JCPOA revival and the release of Iranian blocked money in the short term is a dangerous and delusional hope.
Referring to the recent remarks of the Governor of the Central Bank about the inflationary effects of next Iranian year's budget bill (starts on March 21, 2021), Vahid Shaghaghi said that the general budget ceiling in next year's budget bill is estimated at $216.6 billion, of which $47.3 billion earns from the sources of oil sales and $59.5 billion of tax revenues, the sum of these two government revenues is $107 billion, Trend reports citing ILNA.
“The sources to earn the rest of the general budget is unclear,” the University Professor and economic expert Vahid Shaaghaghi said.
“Earning over $95 billion of government revenues in the budget depends on the sale of surplus property, the shares of state-owned companies, issuance of financial and Islamic bonds, etc. The earning from these resources is likely next Iranian year (starts on March, 21). The boom in the capital market is unlikely to be repeated by next Iranian year,” Shaghaghii said.
"In the face of a potential high budget deficit, there will be a double pressure on the resources of banks and the central bank, which results in borrowing from the National Development Fund,” he said. “Since the reserves in the fund are very limited, we know any withdrawal from the National development fund will lead to excess liquidity."
He went on to say that the exact inflationary impact of the next Iranian year`s budget plan (starts on March 21) is not clear yet, but “we know that the budget deficit will be over $95 billion.”
He went on to say that the most important point is that the revival of JCPOA does not happen overnight.
Referring to Iran's frozen assets in three countries of Iraq, Japan, and South Korea, he said that according to some sources, $4.7 million of which is already released.
“The injection of this amount of money into the Iranian economy is a long and time-consuming process. But certainly, if some of these dollars inject into the central bank, the budget deficit problem will be solved, ” he added
“d.”