BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 16. Global oil demand is projected to increase by 1.1 mb/d in 2024, Trend reports.
Thus, this marked a 140,000 b/d decrease from the International Energy Agency's (IEA) previous forecast.
This downward revision for 2024 primarily stems from disappointing delivery data in the first quarter of the year, falling 400,000 b/d below expectations, particularly in OECD economies, notably in Europe, the agency explained. This shortfall has led to a contraction in first-quarter OECD demand by 70,000 b/d year-on-year.
Looking ahead to 2025, the IEA's global outlook remains largely unchanged, with anticipated growth slightly exceeding that of 2024, at 1.2 mb/d. The expected demand growth for both 2024 and 2025 aligns closely with below-average macroeconomic progress, assuming a global GDP growth rate of 2.9 percent in both years, approximately half a point below the 2010-2019 average.
Although the global economic forecast has improved since the end of last year, with a soft-landing scenario becoming predominant, recent high inflation figures have prompted investors to temper their expectations for central bank interest rate reductions.
Conversely, global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings have shown a rebound in recent months, with the exception of the eurozone. Additionally, the recent decline in oil prices is expected to provide a moderate boost to demand in the short term.