BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 3. Uzbekistan could see a $93 billion increase in trade value by 2040 as the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (TCTC) expands, with imports projected to account for $78 billion of the increase and exports for another $15 billion.
This was reflected in the World Bank’s Integration: World-Class Trade Logistics Along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor publication.
The World Bank expects trade across TCTC host countries to grow by 1.5 times in value and 60% in volume between 2023 and 2040, although the impact is expected to differ significantly across economies.
For Uzbekistan, the baseline forecast indicates that the corridor could generate a substantially larger increase in import trade value than export trade value. The report’s estimates point to a $15 billion increase in exports and a $78 billion increase in imports by 2040 compared with the 2023 baseline.+
The World Bank said the projected trade expansion reflects stronger connectivity and changing trade patterns along the corridor. At the same time, structural constraints, including elevated trade costs, limited infrastructure and logistical fragmentation, could restrict the pace of diversification toward higher-value goods.
Across TCTC economies, trade growth is expected to remain concentrated in hydrocarbons, metals and other bulk commodities, while higher-value products such as machinery, electronics and processed goods are projected to expand from a relatively low base.
For Uzbekistan, improved connectivity could provide greater access to regional and international markets while supporting trade flows through the Caspian Sea and South Caucasus toward Türkiye and Europe. The report also highlights the importance of improving corridor performance to support broader trade diversification.
According to Trend’s calculations, the projected $93 billion combined increase in Uzbekistan’s export and import trade value consists of approximately 16.1% from exports and 83.9% from imports. The projected increase in import value is about 5.2 times larger than the increase in export value, while the combined increase represents $5.5 billion per year over the 17 years if spread evenly for illustration. These figures represent the change in trade value under the World Bank’s baseline forecast, rather than Uzbekistan’s total trade value in 2040.
